Every electrification business case we review fails in one of three places: it compares sticker prices instead of cost per kilometre, it uses the brochure’s energy price instead of the fleet’s, or it pretends the residual value is known. Here is the model we use ourselves, transparent enough to argue with.

Line 1 — Purchase, net of grants. Electric tractors transact at €250,000–400,000 against €120,000–160,000 for diesel — a 40–60% premium before support. Always model net: AanZET up to €115,200 (NL), Plug-in Truck Grant up to £81,000 (UK), German programme windows as they open. A grant that is not yet in writing does not exist; model it as upside.

Line 2 — Energy. The honest comparison is €/km: diesel at consumption × price (28 L/100 km × €1.60 ≈ €0.45/km) versus electricity at consumption × tariff. The tariff decision dominates everything: depot electricity at €0.15–0.25/kWh yields €0.16–0.28/km at 1.1 kWh/km; public fast charging at €0.60–0.90/kWh can erase the entire advantage. Danish fleet data makes the same point in kroner: depot 0.75–1.07 DKK/kWh versus ≈3.00 public. Rule: if the route needs daily public fast charging, re-examine the duty cycle before blaming the truck.

Line 3 — Tolls. The most-neglected and now largest line in North-West Europe: zero-emission ≈ €0.038/km versus diesel ≈ €0.204/km in Flanders and the Netherlands; full exemption in Germany to mid-2031; CO₂ classes in Austria’s GO-Maut; nothing comparable in France or (yet) Sweden. Per-country kilometre allocation turns this from a footnote into a steering wheel.

Line 4 — Maintenance. Electric drivetrains cut routine maintenance meaningfully (no oil, AdBlue, DPF, clutch; regenerative braking saves friction brakes) but tyre wear runs higher from torque and weight. We model 15–25% maintenance savings pending more fleet data, and we say so.

Line 5 — Residual value. The unknown that kills deals. No used e-truck market exists; lessors price the risk into rates. Best current mitigants: manufacturer buy-back guarantees, battery warranties with SoH floors (SANY’s 8 yr/1.2M km at 70% is the written benchmark), and conservative residual assumptions (model 25–35% after five years and treat anything better as found money).

Lines 6–7 — Financing and infrastructure. Financing spreads the premium but prices the residual risk; compare operating-lease quotes against capex plus self-funded residual. Infrastructure capex (chargers, grid upgrade) belongs inside the TCO at per-truck allocated cost — typically €15,000–60,000 per truck for depot builds, before grants like the UK’s 70% depot scheme.

Run the seven lines per duty cycle, per country, with your kilometres — that is the whole method. Our calculator implements lines 1–3 with 2026 defaults; lines 4–7 are where our custom fleet studies earn their fee.