Forecasts are arguments with dates attached, and the 2030 arguments have converged remarkably. ING’s sector work puts the electric share of new over-16t truck sales at roughly 3% for 2025 and above 5% for 2026; ICCT projects 290,000–340,000 electric trucks operating on European roads by 2030; ACEA’s upside scenario reaches 400,000. Even the conservative end implies a tenfold expansion of the parc in five years — a growth path with few precedents in commercial vehicles.

Where the analysts earn their fees is the path decomposition, and on this they agree: the first wave is depot-based. ING estimates around 30% of 2025 sales went to retail and dense distribution networks — operators whose trucks return to base nightly, whose energy can be bought at depot tariffs a fraction of public charging prices, and whose route predictability makes range anxiety a spreadsheet exercise rather than an operational risk. Amazon and DSV feature in the same analyses as the logo-carriers of this wave.

The second wave — corridor long-haul — is infrastructure-gated, and here the forecasters diverge on timing rather than direction. The optimists point to AFIR’s binding corridor coverage targets and Milence’s build-out (four Belgian hubs already, over €111 million in EU co-funding); the sceptics point to grid-connection lead times measured in years and the Q1 2026 reality that fourteen member states still register under 100 electric trucks a year. Our read sits with the conditional view: the ICCT central case is achievable if, and only if, corridor charging arrives on schedule and the 2030 −45% compliance cliff forces manufacturer pricing aggression. Both conditions are policy-shaped, which is why we track them rather than predict them.

For a fleet CFO, the actionable content of these forecasts is not the 2030 total but the phasing: vehicles bought for depot duty in 2026–2028 will enjoy the best-supported economics of the transition (grants, toll gaps, proven use case), while long-haul replacements are better timed against 2029–2031, when infrastructure, model range and manufacturer pricing all peak. Buy the use case that is proven; schedule the one that is coming.

What to watch

The first credible used e-truck price points — forecast to emerge from UK grant-driven fleets around 2029–2030 — will do more for the third wave of adoption than any subsidy.