Ask a truck lessor what an electric tractor will be worth in five years and you will get the honest answer: nobody knows. There is no functioning secondary market for electric heavy trucks — too few units, too new a technology, too many unknowns about battery degradation at high mileage. That single fact shapes the financing of the entire transition.

How the risk gets priced today. In the absence of data, finance providers do what they always do with uncertainty: charge for it. Operating leases for e-trucks carry conservative residual assumptions (often 20–30% after four to five years versus 35–45% for diesel), which inflates monthly rates and quietly erases part of the operating-cost advantage. Fleets that buy cash face the same question at disposal. The residual problem is not a reason to avoid electric — it is a cost line to be negotiated and mitigated.

The mitigations that actually work. (1) Manufacturer buy-back guarantees: several OEMs now offer repurchase commitments at defined percentages — effectively residual insurance; price the premium against your own assumption. (2) Battery warranty quality: a written SoH floor that transfers to a second owner (see our warranty explainer) is the foundation of any future residual; SANY’s published 70%-at-8-years terms and the incumbents’ per-contract programmes will be judged by exactly this. (3) Shorter initial cycles: fleets running 3–4-year first cycles cap their exposure while the market learns. (4) Duty matching: trucks kept in the depot-distribution segment where demand will be deepest at resale.

When clarity arrives. The first meaningful used supply is visible on the calendar: UK grant-driven fleet growth (hundreds of ZEHID and Plug-in-Grant trucks entering service through 2025–26) starts hitting disposal age around 2029–2030, and early European incumbent fleet renewals follow. The first transparent used-price prints will do more for mainstream adoption than any subsidy — they convert the residual from a guess into a market. Until then, our advice stands: conservative assumptions, negotiated guarantees, and treat any residual above 30% as upside rather than plan.

WattTonne’s read. Watch the lessors, not the truck makers: when a major lessor publishes a confident e-truck residual curve, the transition’s final financial barrier falls. We track exactly that signal.