BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026 landed with a bus-market headline that doubles as a truck-market prophecy: more than 20 countries already exceed 50% electric city-bus sales, with e-buses heading for 60% of the global market by 2030. Europe’s bus data confirms the mechanism (ICCT: 28.6% zero-emission bus share H1 2026, city buses past 60% in Q2).

The transfer logic for trucks: buses electrified first because their duty cycle (fixed urban loops, depot nights, public procurement) is the easiest in commercial transport — the same profile as the depot-distribution truck segment now leading truck electrification. The EVO’s S-curve framing applies: penetration inflects when TCO parity plus infrastructure meet, then compounding is fast. China’s truck market is on that curve already (53.9% December penetration); Europe is at the knee of it (4.8% and compounding).

For board presentations, EVO 2026 is the credible third-party document that ends ‘is this transition real?’ debates — the question worth your time is the one it doesn’t answer: which duty cycles in your fleet cross first. That’s what our tools are for.