Forecasts published by Chinese industry analysts in early 2026 converged on 35–45% new-energy heavy-truck penetration for the full year — versus 21% for 2025 on the annual basis. The drivers cited: roughly 500,000 pre-National-IV trucks in the replacement-incentive pipeline, LFP battery cost declines making purchase-price parity routine in key segments, and swap/charging infrastructure reaching corridor coverage.

Tracking the forecast against actuals shows the discipline of the underlying trend: January printed 33.18%, February 26.16% (seasonal low), March 23.30%, April 30.20%, May at a record on the new-vehicle-market basis (40.88% by one count), with cumulative penetration near or above the forecast band by mid-year. The eleven-ministry 2030 plan (40% by 2030) essentially codified what the 2026 trajectory was already delivering early.

For European planners: treat 40% as China’s new normal for heavy-truck electrification — and recalibrate what ‘early’ means for Europe at 4.8%. The technologies, supply chains and operating playbooks being proven at that scale this year are the ones arriving in European showrooms and corridors next.